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The future can not be predicted by anyone, but all people act something in anticipation of the future. And it is common to make predictions from past trends. However, nowadays, many things that have never been experienced in Japan have occurred at the same time, so we are in an era where it is difficult to predict the future.
For example, in the economic report by the government in January of this year, Japan maintained the judgment that the domestic economy is gradually recovering. Toshimitsu Motegi, minister in charge of economic revitalization, announces that the period of economic expansion that has been ongoing since December 2012 has reached six years and two months and has become the longest after the war.
Managers whose own business is largely influenced by the economy of Japan are expected to have planned a management plan in anticipation of the economic downturn. In addition, it is expected that Japan will enter into an era that will be greatly affected by things such as full-scale population decline, declining birthrate and aging population, and so on.
Even if you try to learn from past lessons, the same situation as that of the past does not exist at present, so we will be asked for our ability to anticipate the future in the future.
This is also the real estate industry, and the same can be said to those who have real estate in Japan. Please see the graph below.
※Created by the author from the Real Estate Economic Research Institute “Condominium · Building Market Trends”
The graph above shows changes in apartment prices in Japan in the 23 wards, the Tokyo metropolitan area, and the Kinki area, but the price is already close to the bubble period of Japan. Indeed, there are many people who understand this surging and request our company to assess their own property prices.
Recently, a person who purchased real estate about five years ago asked us to make an assessment. The appraisal value of this client’s real estate was more than doubled. This client was also planning to sell as it was concerned about the common post-Olympic crash. Now, many people are concerned about the crash rumored in Japan and are considering selling.
However, it is never true that the same situation applies to all real estate. The situation will change according to your real estate. For example, many people think that they will not make a big drop anywhere in the 23 wards, but in fact the situation is quite different even in the 23 wards.
Real estate prices are influenced by various factors. Roughly speaking, it will fluctuate depending on the supply-demand balance. And one factor is the increase and decrease of the population. For example, looking at the peak period of the population of 23 wards, it is as follows.
・Ward where the population peaks by 2020
Adachi-ku, Katsushika-ku, Edogawa-ku
・Ward where the population peaks in 2025
Shinjuku-ku, Sumida-ku, Meguro-ku, Ota-ku, Setagaya-ku, Nakano-ku, Suginami-ku, Toshima-ku, Kita-ku, Arakawa-ku, Nerima-ku
・Ward where the population peaks in 2030
Bunkyo-ku, Taito-ku, Shinagawa-ku, Shibuya-ku, Itabashi-ku
・Ward where the population peaks in 2035
・Ward where population tends to increase till 2040
Chiyoda-ku, Chuo-ku, Minato-ku
Incidentally, all municipalities in Tokyo will peak until 2025. From the above, you can see that the situation is very different even in 23 wards. The real estate price is not determined only by the trend of the population, but it is certain that it will become one element of future expectations. And even in the same area, the price fluctuates due to various factors such as environment, location convenience, etc.
In assessing property prices, it is important to objectively judge from future prediction, present and past sales situation. All real estate companies should be able to assess the sale from the perspective of the future, present and past. So, when considering selling your own real estate, we recommend that you ask a company that will submit assessment materials you agree with objective data.
My company, LINC Inc., as a real estate agent specialized in foreigners, provides visualization of objective data on Japanese real estate market and sale assessment which foreigners are hard to grasp easily. When you want to assess your precious property, please ask our agent.
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